Michael Mann (of the hockey stick fame) has been exonerated by Penn state in in its inquiry into Mann’s actions in light of the recent leaked emails. Here is what they found: Allegation 1: Did you engage in, or participate in, directly or indirectly, any actions with the intent to suppress or falsify data? Decision:... Continue Reading →
Going away
I am going away for a while, and might not have time/internet access readily available, so posting will slow to a craw, if not completely halt. Also I am turning on comment moderation to keep the trolls and spammers at bay, so be patient if your comment doesn’t appear immediately. I’ll be back in a... Continue Reading →
Why we need to cut emissions today, not tomorrow
The longer we wait to cut emissions, the more drastic our emissions cuts will have to be in order to avoid catastrophic climate change. Had we listened to the warnings of scientists in the 80s the reductions needed would have have been relatively easy to achieve. Had we taken the emissions targets of the Kyoto... Continue Reading →
Climatologist criticizes IPCC, says its conclusions are valid
News has been making the rounds that respected Canadian climatologist Andrew Weaver has throw his hat behind those that criticize the IPCC. And in some respects he has done just that, but importantly he has not called into question the science included in the IPCC reports, nor the conclusion that our GHG emissions are responsible... Continue Reading →
Banks move away from emissions trading
So says the Guardian: Banks are pulling out of the carbon-offsetting market after Copenhagen failed to reach agreement on emissions targets… Carbon financiers have already begun leaving banks in London because of the lack of activity and the drop-off in investment demand. The Guardian has been told that backers have this month pulled out of... Continue Reading →
Amazon(non)gate
Once more, we find that the IPCC WG2 made an error. Only the error is not what is being trumpeted by deniers. There was a dire warning in chapter 13 of the report of IPCC Working Group II: "Up to 40% of Amazonian forests could react drastically to even a slight reduction in precipitation; this... Continue Reading →
Deniers are not making scientific arguments
Deniers are not making scientific arguments. Scientific arguments require consistency, something which deniers make no pretence of striving for. Plimer's argument was that climate has changed in the past. Eg - climate has a high sensitivity. Monckton's argument was that climate has a low sensitivity. I think the irony that the two [deniers] were arguing... Continue Reading →
Unfortunately, people assume genius at one thing means genius at all things
Unfortunately, people assume genius at one thing means genius at all things
The Impossible Hamster
impossiblehamster.org I like this (and not just because I am a fan of giant space hamsters, and even miniature giant space hamsters), but I think the focus is wrong. It is not the size of the economy that maters but rather the environmental footprint of that economy. Typically the size of an economy is positively... Continue Reading →
The Himalayas circa 2035
Once again we see that scientists are not perfect, but flawed like the rest of us (duh), and it turns out the reports made by those flawed humans are also not perfect (duh). Science works fine in aggregate, but this idea that science must have only flawless people doing impeccable work is a strawman set... Continue Reading →
Surveillance makes our communication networks less secure, and helps totalitarian states
An infrastructure conducive to surveillance and control invites surveillance and control, both by the people you expect and by the people you don't… Whether the eavesdroppers are the good guys or the bad guys, these systems put us all at greater risk. Communications systems that have no inherent eavesdropping capabilities are more secure than systems... Continue Reading →
Quote of the Day
The greatest failure of modern media is a chronic inability to differentiate experts from cranks -Dan Moutal
Elitist scientists
(h/t Rationality Now via Michael Tobis)
Bjorn Lomborg, wrong with a dash of socialism
Bjorn Lomborg isn’t genuine in his arguments against putting a price on carbon. His latest op-ed in the Washington Post is a prime example. Take a look at Lomborg’s calculation of costs: All the major climate economic models show that to achieve the much-discussed goal of keeping temperature increases under 2 degrees Celsius, we would... Continue Reading →
Quote of the Day
I contend that some part of the anti-consensus group deliberately sows confusion, misinformation, and doubt about the achievements of climate science to date. I think it is very difficult to separate out the perpetrators from the victims from the people who succeed in fooling themselves. It's very easy to distinguish between what they do and... Continue Reading →
Long-term trends vs cold snaps
Also see the recent misrepresentation of Mojib Latif’s work, this paper and this recent article by James Hansen et al.: If It’s That Warm, How Come It’s So Damned Cold? by James Hansen, Reto Ruedy, Makiko Sato, and Ken Lo The past year, 2009, tied as the second warmest year in the 130 years of... Continue Reading →
An illustration of the climate change debate, part 2
Michael Tobis has elaborated on what his illustration of the climate change debate means. So what does this two hump structure mean? If there were no malice involved, a two-humped opinion spectrum would mean there is an alternative theory, either ascendant or in decline, to the mainstream. There would be, in such a case, no... Continue Reading →
Why is the news media comfortable with lying about science?
When the news industry catches its own making up the content of a news story—especially involving politicians—the result is typically scandal, firings, and some public soul-searching. Why isn't the same true when it comes to science?
Inadequate proof that global warming is bunk
Given that lack of any real temperature record breakers since 1998 (technically that is not true, 2005 was slightly hotter, and we just emerged from the hottest decade on record), it isn’t surprising that deniers who don’t understand the science have repeatedly made claims that the past decade somehow invalidates global warming. Or that global... Continue Reading →
Pro tar-sand bias in the Canadian government?
Not entirely surprising: Newly released federal documents have revealed some potentially inconvenient truths about the environmental impact of Alberta's oilsands industry, along with the risks and economic costs of the Harper government's climate change strategy. The documents take aim at a government assessment of the oilsands sector prepared by the Natural Resources Department. Officials from... Continue Reading →
No we are not cooling, nor are we entering into a mini-ice age!
Here we go again, for another round of misrepresenting Mojib Latif’s work showing a levelling off of temperature followed by rapid warming. This time it was kicked off by the cold spell over parts of Europe and North America. But it is worth noting that the Arctic is much warmer than usual, and it is... Continue Reading →
Quote of the day
There are numerous newspapers, radio stations and television channels all trying to get our attention. Some overstate and some want to downplay the problem as a way to get that attention… We are trying to discuss in the media a highly complex issue. Nobody would discuss the problem of [Einstein's theory of] relativity in the... Continue Reading →
The climate consensus visualized
Via Information is Beautiful: The Skeptical side claims at least 31,486 dissenters in their ranks, according to the PetitionProject.org. That sounds like a lot. But is it? Of course, not all 12 million US scientists therefore agree with ‘The Consensus’. But this puts the PetitionProject’s 31,486 signatories in some kind of context. Our maths here... Continue Reading →
The fact that denier science is rejected by the peer-reviewed literature is not evidence of bias, or conspiracy
Climategate has renewed calls that the peer-reviewed literature is either biased against global warming deniers, or is actively conspiring to prevent those with dissenting views from publishing their work. But the fact that this is happening is not evidence that such bias or conspiracy exists, as Michael Tobis writes: Starting from a blank slate, it... Continue Reading →
On full body scanners and underwear bombs
Bruce Schneier sums up this whole absurdity nicely: The problem with all these measures is that they're only effective if we guess the plot correctly. Defending against a particular tactic or target makes sense if tactics and targets are few. But there are hundreds of tactics and millions of targets, so all these measures will... Continue Reading →
CO2 is, and has always been, the biggest climate control knob in the earth’s history
CO2 is the biggest control climate knob. And it has been the biggest knob as far back as we can tell. So says Richard Alley. Actually it isn’t so much him saying this, as the latest science. Richard Alley is merely summarizing the science: Richard Alley: "The Biggest Control Knob: Carbon Dioxide in Earth's Climate... Continue Reading →
Quote of the day
It’s no longer possible to delve into our relationship with the global environment without drawing conclusions that make you seem like a raving fanatic to those who have yet to delve. -Stephan Faris
Jobs, not tree
Happy New Year! By Marc Roberts
Uncertainty of the future increases the value of climate mitigation today
How often have you heard that more certainty in climate science is needed before large scale mitigation polices should be implemented? Certainly many politicians and pundits have made that claim, and while at first blush this seems sensible, economists overwhelmingly say the opposite, as uncertainty increases so does the value of mitigation. Costs increase nonlinearly... Continue Reading →
Conspiracy theories
Climategate has renewed calls that the IPCC and climate science in general is all just a big fraud. This is happening despite a lack of supporting evidence. The problem is that those claiming this is all a massive conspiracy have no idea of the amount of evidence required to not only prove mainstream science wrong,... Continue Reading →
Quote of the Day
The trouble with questioning authority, of course, doesn't come from the question; it comes from the complete indifference to the answer. –Michael Tobis UPDATE: More from Michael Tobis: The IPCC process is massive, and unprecedented, managed by flawed human beings. To make matters worse, it is a time-limited consensus process among scientists whose expertise is... Continue Reading →
Bah Humbug!
(via xkcd)